Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Oct 14 · 19:00 · Bodø/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 50%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bodø/Glimt26%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
Borussia Dortmund50%47%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 39% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bodø/Glimt
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Kristiansund BK (H)3-1
- Oct 1 · at Rana FK (A)6-2
- Sep 20 · at SK Brann (A)1-2
- Sep 14 · v Sandefjord Fotball (H)3-2
- Sep 10 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-5
Borussia Dortmund
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 9 · v SV Werder Bremen (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v SC Paderborn 07 (H)3-0
- Sep 8 · v Villarreal (H)3-2
- Sep 5 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Bodø/Glimt | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-0 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.