Eliteserien (Norway) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Bodø/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK
Likeliest: Bodø/Glimt win · 92%
Likely score: 3–1
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bodø/Glimt92%89%+3
OursMarket
Draw5%7%−2
OursMarket
Kristiansund BK3%4%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 51% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 97% | 96% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 8% | 11% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 95% | 93% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 96% | 95% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 3.4 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bodø/Glimt
WinLossWinLossWin
- Oct 1 · at Rana FK (A)6-2
- Sep 20 · at SK Brann (A)1-2
- Sep 14 · v Sandefjord Fotball (H)3-2
- Sep 10 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-5
- Sep 4 · at Fredrikstad FK (A)2-1
Kristiansund BK
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 19 · v Rosenborg BK (H)1-3
- Sep 16 · at Brattvåg (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at Viking FK (A)1-8
- Sep 6 · v Tromsø IL (H)2-0
- Aug 30 · at HamKam (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Bodø/Glimt | Kristiansund BK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-0 | 1-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.