Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Nov 3 · 20:00 · Bodø/Glimt vs Lille
Likeliest: Bodø/Glimt win · 52%
Likely scores: 1–1 10% · 1–2 9% · 0–1 7%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bodø/Glimt52%51%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−2
OursMarket
Lille26%25%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 67% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.9 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bodø/Glimt
WinWinLossLossWin
- Oct 30 · v Viking FK (H)3-2
- Oct 24 · v Vålerenga IF (H)0-1
- Oct 20 · at Napoli (A)3-4
- Oct 17 · at HamKam (A)2-0
- Oct 14 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-0
Lille
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 30 · v RC Lens (H)1-0
- Oct 25 · at AS Monaco (A)1-1
- Oct 21 · v Galatasaray (H)2-4
- Oct 17 · v Stade Brestois (H)1-1
- Oct 13 · at Arsenal (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Bodø/Glimt | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.