Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Aug 25 · 19:00 · Bodø/Glimt vs NEC Nijmegen
Likeliest: Bodø/Glimt win · 42%
A 34% away win. The market says 18%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bodø/Glimt42%63%−21
OursMarket
Draw24%19%+5
OursMarket
NEC Nijmegen34%18%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 71% | −33 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 82% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 37% | +21 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 81% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 78% | −23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bodø/Glimt
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Aug 19 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)3-1
- Aug 11 · v Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (H)2-2
- Aug 8 · at Vålerenga IF (A)2-1
- Aug 4 · at Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (A)3-3
- Jul 31 · v Lillestrøm SK (H)4-0
NEC Nijmegen
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Aug 19 · v Bodø/Glimt (H)1-3
- Aug 15 · at Willem II Tilburg (A)4-1
- Aug 11 · v Olympiacos FC (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · v SC Telstar (H)1-2
- Aug 4 · at Olympiacos FC (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Bodø/Glimt | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-0 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.