Eliteserien (Norway) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Bodø/Glimt vs Vålerenga IF
Likeliest: Bodø/Glimt win · 87%
Likely score: 3–1
We make it 68% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bodø/Glimt87%83%+5
OursMarket
Draw7%10%−3
OursMarket
Vålerenga IF5%7%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 58% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 95% | 93% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 13% | 17% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 93% | 90% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 94% | 92% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 3.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bodø/Glimt
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at HamKam (A)2-0
- Oct 14 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Kristiansund BK (H)3-1
- Oct 1 · at Rana FK (A)6-2
- Sep 20 · at SK Brann (A)1-2
Vålerenga IF
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 18 · v SK Brann (H)3-1
- Oct 12 · at KFUM Oslo (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Fredrikstad FK (H)1-1
- Sep 17 · at Skeid (A)4-1
- Sep 12 · at Lillestrøm SK (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Bodø/Glimt | Vålerenga IF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 2-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.