1. Lig (Turkey) · Fri, Oct 9 · 14:00 · Bodrum FK vs Keçiörengücü
Likeliest: Keçiörengücü win · 38%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bodrum FK31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Keçiörengücü38%38%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bodrum FK
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at Pendikspor (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Batman Petrolspor (H)4-0
- Sep 7 · at Mardin 1969 Spor (A)0-1
- Sep 3 · v Esenler Erokspor (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Manisa FK (A)0-0
Keçiörengücü
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Sep 19 · v Sivasspor (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Van Spor Futbol Kulübü (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Sarıyer (H)3-0
- Sep 1 · at Boluspor (A)2-0
- Aug 28 · v Ümraniyespor (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Bodrum FK | Keçiörengücü |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.