Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Sep 18 · 19:00 · Bohemian FC vs Drogheda United
Likeliest: Bohemian FC win · 72%
A tight one: we make it 72% for the home win. The market says 69%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bohemian FC72%69%+2
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
Drogheda United11%12%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 88% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 31% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 85% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bohemian FC
LossLossWinWinWin
- Sep 11 · at Galway United (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · v Sligo Rovers (H)3-0
- Aug 21 · v Derry City (H)5-3
- Aug 13 · at FC Midtjylland (A)2-3
- Aug 9 · at Waterford FC (A)1-3
Drogheda United
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Sep 14 · at Shelbourne (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Sligo Rovers (H)2-0
- Aug 28 · v Dundalk FC (H)2-3
- Aug 21 · v St. Patrick's Athletic (H)0-2
- Aug 7 · at Galway United (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Bohemian FC | Drogheda United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-3 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.