Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:45 · Bohemian FC vs Shelbourne
Likeliest: Bohemian FC win · 60%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bohemian FC60%58%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Shelbourne17%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bohemian FC
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 16 · v Waterford FC (H)2-1
- Oct 12 · at Shamrock Rovers (A)1-2
- Oct 2 · at Dundalk FC (A)2-1
- Sep 18 · v Drogheda United (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · at Galway United (A)3-2
Shelbourne
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 16 · at St. Patrick's Athletic (A)2-1
- Oct 9 · v Sligo Rovers (H)5-1
- Sep 25 · at Galway United (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Dundalk FC (A)3-2
- Sep 14 · v Drogheda United (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Bohemian FC | Shelbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.