Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:45 · Bohemian FC vs Waterford FC
Likeliest: Bohemian FC win · 69%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 69% for the home win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bohemian FC69%66%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%19%−1
OursMarket
Waterford FC13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 34% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 82% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bohemian FC
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 12 · at Shamrock Rovers (A)1-2
- Oct 2 · at Dundalk FC (A)2-1
- Sep 18 · v Drogheda United (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · at Galway United (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · v Sligo Rovers (H)3-0
Waterford FC
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 18 · at Shamrock Rovers (A)2-3
- Sep 14 · v Derry City (H)2-2
- Sep 11 · v Dundalk FC (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at St. Patrick's Athletic (A)2-0
- Aug 21 · at Sligo Rovers (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Bohemian FC | Waterford FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.