Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Wed, Oct 14 · 16:00 · Bohemians Praha 1905 vs Mladá Boleslav
Likeliest: Bohemians Praha 1905 win · 39%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bohemians Praha 190539%43%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Mladá Boleslav33%31%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 69% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bohemians Praha 1905
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Baník Ostrava (H)1-0
- Sep 30 · at FC Vsetin (A)5-0
- Sep 19 · at FK Pardubice (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v 1. FC Slovácko (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at SK Sigma Olomouc (A)0-3
Mladá Boleslav
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Viktoria Plzeň (A)0-3
- Sep 19 · v FC Zbrojovka Brno (H)2-0
- Sep 15 · at FK Třinec (A)3-0
- Sep 12 · at FC Slovan Liberec (A)0-3
- Sep 6 · v Baník Ostrava (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Bohemians Praha 1905 | Mladá Boleslav |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.