División Profesional (Bolivia) · Sun, Oct 11 · 23:30 · Bolívar vs Blooming
Likeliest: Bolívar win · 86%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 86% for the home win. The market says 83%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bolívar86%83%+3
OursMarket
Draw9%11%−2
OursMarket
Blooming5%7%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 95% | 93% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 14% | 17% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 94% | 93% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.8 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bolívar
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 18 · v GV San José (H)4-2
- Sep 13 · at CD Real Tomayapo (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Independiente Petrolero (A)4-0
- Aug 28 · v Academia del Balompié Boliviano (H)4-1
- Aug 23 · at CDT Real Oruro (A)4-2
Blooming
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 17 · v FC Universitario de Vinto (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Academia del Balompié Boliviano (H)6-1
- Sep 7 · at Nacional Potosí (A)1-2
- Aug 27 · v CDT Real Oruro (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Guabirá (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Bolívar | Blooming |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-1 | 1-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.