División Profesional (Bolivia) · Fri, Sep 18 · 00:30 · Bolívar vs GV San José
Likeliest: Bolívar win · 84%
A tight one: we make it 84% for the home win. The market says 83%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bolívar84%83%+2
OursMarket
Draw7%10%−3
OursMarket
GV San José8%7%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 83% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 93% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 16% | 17% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 93% | 90% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 92% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 3.3 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bolívar
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 13 · at CD Real Tomayapo (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Independiente Petrolero (A)4-0
- Aug 28 · v Academia del Balompié Boliviano (H)4-1
- Aug 23 · at CDT Real Oruro (A)4-2
- Aug 19 · at São Paulo (A)1-3
GV San José
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v Nacional Potosí (H)0-3
- Sep 5 · at Club Aurora (A)0-3
- Aug 25 · v Oriente Petrolero (H)3-3
- Aug 22 · at Academia del Balompié Boliviano (A)2-2
- Aug 17 · at Independiente Petrolero (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Bolívar | GV San José |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-1 | 0-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.