Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Wed, Aug 12 · 00:30 · Bolívar vs São Paulo
Likeliest: Bolívar win · 52%
We make it 51% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bolívar52%51%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
São Paulo22%23%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 53% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 55% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 69% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bolívar
WinWinLossWinWin
- Aug 8 · at Club Aurora (A)4-2
- Aug 6 · v Oriente Petrolero (H)2-1
- Aug 2 · at Club Always Ready (A)0-1
- Jul 30 · at Grêmio (A)1-0
- Jul 26 · v Real Potosí (H)2-1
São Paulo
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Aug 8 · at Grêmio (A)1-2
- Jul 26 · at Flamengo (A)1-1
- Jul 23 · v Athletico (H)1-2
- May 31 · at Remo (A)0-1
- May 26 · v Boston River (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Bolívar | São Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-2 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-1 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.