Serie A (Italy) · Wed, Jan 7 · 17:30 · Bologna vs Atalanta
Likeliest: Bologna win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 33%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bologna41%33%+8
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−3
OursMarket
Atalanta32%38%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 48% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 62% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 67% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 46% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Jan 4 · at Inter (A)1-3
- Dec 28 · v Sassuolo (H)1-1
- Dec 14 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- Dec 11 · at Celta de Vigo (A)2-1
- Dec 7 · at Lazio (A)1-1
Atalanta
WinWinWinLossWin
- Jan 3 · v Roma (H)1-0
- Dec 28 · v Inter (H)0-1
- Dec 21 · at Genoa (A)1-0
- Dec 13 · v Cagliari (H)2-1
- Dec 9 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.