Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 3 · 10:30 · Bologna vs Cagliari
Likeliest: Bologna win · 47%
A 28% away win. The market says 21%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bologna47%51%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Cagliari28%21%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 48% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 79% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 49% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 71% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Apr 25 · v Roma (H)0-2
- Apr 19 · at Juventus (A)0-2
- Apr 16 · at Aston Villa (A)0-4
- Apr 12 · v Lecce (H)2-0
- Apr 9 · v Aston Villa (H)1-3
Cagliari
LossLossWinLossWin
- Apr 27 · v Atalanta (H)3-2
- Apr 17 · at Inter (A)0-3
- Apr 11 · v Cremonese (H)1-0
- Apr 4 · at Sassuolo (A)1-2
- Mar 20 · v Napoli (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.