Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Mar 8 · 14:00 · Bologna vs Hellas Verona
Likeliest: Bologna win · 54%
We make it 55% for both teams to score. The market says 45%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bologna54%61%−7
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Hellas Verona21%15%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 45% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 85% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 39% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 80% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
WinWinWinWinWin
- Mar 2 · at Pisa (A)1-0
- Feb 26 · v Brann (H)1-0
- Feb 23 · v Udinese (H)1-0
- Feb 19 · at Brann (A)1-0
- Feb 15 · at Torino (A)2-1
Hellas Verona
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Feb 28 · v Napoli (H)1-2
- Feb 20 · at Sassuolo (A)0-3
- Feb 15 · at Parma (A)1-2
- Feb 6 · v Pisa (H)0-0
- Jan 31 · at Cagliari (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.