Serie A (Italy) · Sat, May 23 · 16:00 · Bologna vs Inter
Likeliest: Inter win · 52%
A 52% away win. The market says 43%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bologna23%32%−8
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Inter52%43%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 63% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 57% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 68% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 43% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
LossLossDrawWinWin
- May 17 · at Atalanta (A)1-0
- May 11 · at Napoli (A)3-2
- May 3 · v Cagliari (H)0-0
- Apr 25 · v Roma (H)0-2
- Apr 19 · at Juventus (A)0-2
Inter
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- May 17 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-1
- May 13 · at Lazio (A)2-0
- May 9 · at Lazio (A)3-0
- May 3 · v Parma (H)2-0
- Apr 26 · at Torino (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.