Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Oct 17 · 16:00 · Bologna vs Inter Milan
Likeliest: Inter Milan win · 63%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 63% for the away win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bologna14%18%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Inter Milan63%59%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 37% | 41% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 87% | 82% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 18% | 23% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 11 · at Lecce (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Torino (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Napoli (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Sassuolo (H)2-2
- Aug 31 · at Atalanta (A)0-1
Inter Milan
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 13 · v Club Brugge KV (H)3-4
- Oct 10 · v Parma (H)3-0
- Oct 4 · at FC Como (A)2-0
- Sep 27 · v Fiorentina (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · at Roma (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Inter Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-4 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.