Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Dec 14 · 19:45 · Bologna vs Juventus
Likeliest: Juventus win · 42%
We make it 61% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 57%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bologna29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%30%−1
OursMarket
Juventus42%38%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 43% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 62% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 46% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Dec 11 · at Celta de Vigo (A)2-1
- Dec 7 · at Lazio (A)1-1
- Dec 4 · v Parma (H)2-1
- Dec 1 · v Cremonese (H)1-3
- Nov 27 · v Salzburg (H)4-1
Juventus
WinWinWinLossWin
- Dec 10 · v Pafos FC (H)2-0
- Dec 7 · at Napoli (A)1-2
- Dec 2 · v Udinese (H)2-0
- Nov 29 · v Cagliari (H)2-1
- Nov 25 · at Bodø / Glimt (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.