Coppa Italia (Italy) · Wed, Feb 11 · 20:00 · Bologna vs Lazio
Likeliest: Bologna win · 46%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bologna46%44%+2
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Lazio27%26%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 39% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 46% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 74% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 64% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Feb 8 · v Parma (H)0-1
- Feb 3 · v AC Milan (H)0-3
- Jan 29 · at Maccabi Tel Aviv (A)3-0
- Jan 25 · at Genoa (A)2-3
- Jan 22 · v Celtic (H)2-2
Lazio
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Feb 8 · at Juventus (A)2-2
- Jan 30 · v Genoa (H)3-2
- Jan 24 · at Lecce (A)0-0
- Jan 19 · v Como (H)0-3
- Jan 11 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.