Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Mar 22 · 14:00 · Bologna vs Lazio
Likeliest: Bologna win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 41%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bologna45%41%+4
OursMarket
Draw27%30%−4
OursMarket
Lazio29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 46% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 59% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 58% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Mar 19 · at Roma (A)4-3
- Mar 15 · at Sassuolo (A)1-0
- Mar 12 · v Roma (H)1-1
- Mar 8 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-2
- Mar 2 · at Pisa (A)1-0
Lazio
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- Mar 15 · v AC Milan (H)1-0
- Mar 9 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
- Mar 4 · v Atalanta (H)2-2
- Mar 1 · at Torino (A)0-2
- Feb 21 · at Cagliari (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.