Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Aug 24 · 16:30 · Bologna vs Lazio
Likeliest: Bologna win · 44%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bologna44%44%0
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Lazio30%27%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 42% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 49% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 62% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- May 23 · v Inter (H)3-3
- May 17 · at Atalanta (A)1-0
- May 11 · at Napoli (A)3-2
- May 3 · v Cagliari (H)0-0
- Apr 25 · v Roma (H)0-2
Lazio
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Aug 16 · v Mantova (H)0-2
- May 23 · v Pisa (H)2-1
- May 17 · at Roma (A)0-2
- May 13 · v Inter (H)0-2
- May 9 · v Inter (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.