Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Apr 12 · 16:00 · Bologna vs Lecce
Likeliest: Bologna win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bologna54%52%+2
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Lecce21%19%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 43% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 81% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 73% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 9 · v Aston Villa (H)1-3
- Apr 5 · at Cremonese (A)2-1
- Mar 22 · v Lazio (H)0-2
- Mar 19 · at Roma (A)4-3
- Mar 15 · at Sassuolo (A)1-0
Lecce
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Apr 6 · v Atalanta (H)0-3
- Mar 22 · at Roma (A)0-1
- Mar 14 · at Napoli (A)1-2
- Mar 8 · v Cremonese (H)2-1
- Feb 28 · at Como (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.