Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Nov 9 · 14:00 · Bologna vs Napoli
Likeliest: Bologna win · 36%
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Bologna36%——
OursMarket
Draw33%——
OursMarket
Napoli31%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Nov 6 · v Brann (H)0-0
- Nov 2 · at Parma (A)3-1
- Oct 29 · v Torino (H)0-0
- Oct 26 · at Fiorentina (A)2-2
- Oct 23 · at FCSB (A)2-1
Napoli
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Nov 4 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)0-0
- Nov 1 · v Como (H)0-0
- Oct 28 · at Lecce (A)1-0
- Oct 25 · v Inter (H)3-1
- Oct 21 · at PSV (A)2-6
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.