Coppa Italia (Italy) · Thu, Dec 4 · 17:00 · Bologna vs Parma
Likeliest: Bologna win · 50%
We make it 66% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bologna50%63%−13
OursMarket
Draw30%23%+7
OursMarket
Parma20%14%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 47% | −13 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 86% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 37% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 77% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 82% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Dec 1 · v Cremonese (H)1-3
- Nov 27 · v Salzburg (H)4-1
- Nov 22 · at Udinese (A)3-0
- Nov 9 · v Napoli (H)2-0
- Nov 6 · v Brann (H)0-0
Parma
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Nov 29 · v Udinese (H)0-2
- Nov 23 · at Hellas Verona (A)2-1
- Nov 8 · v Milan (H)2-2
- Nov 2 · v Bologna (H)1-3
- Oct 29 · at Roma (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.