Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Feb 8 · 11:30 · Bologna vs Parma
Likeliest: Bologna win · 50%
A 25% away win. The market says 18%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bologna50%57%−7
OursMarket
Draw25%25%−1
OursMarket
Parma25%18%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 48% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 82% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 43% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 76% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Feb 3 · v AC Milan (H)0-3
- Jan 29 · at Maccabi Tel Aviv (A)3-0
- Jan 25 · at Genoa (A)2-3
- Jan 22 · v Celtic (H)2-2
- Jan 18 · v Fiorentina (H)1-2
Parma
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Feb 1 · v Juventus (H)1-4
- Jan 25 · at Atalanta (A)0-4
- Jan 18 · v Genoa (H)0-0
- Jan 14 · at Napoli (A)0-0
- Jan 11 · at Lecce (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.