Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Mar 12 · 17:45 · Bologna vs Roma
Likeliest: Bologna win · 40%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bologna40%31%+9
OursMarket
Draw28%31%−3
OursMarket
Roma33%38%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 40% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 47% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 62% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 69% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 45% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Mar 8 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-2
- Mar 2 · at Pisa (A)1-0
- Feb 26 · v Brann (H)1-0
- Feb 23 · v Udinese (H)1-0
- Feb 19 · at Brann (A)1-0
Roma
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Mar 8 · at Genoa (A)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Juventus (H)3-3
- Feb 22 · v Cremonese (H)3-0
- Feb 15 · at Napoli (A)2-2
- Feb 9 · v Cagliari (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.