Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Apr 25 · 16:00 · Bologna vs Roma
Likeliest: Bologna win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 29%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bologna38%29%+9
OursMarket
Draw28%30%−2
OursMarket
Roma34%41%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 45% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 59% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 71% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 41% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Apr 19 · at Juventus (A)0-2
- Apr 16 · at Aston Villa (A)0-4
- Apr 12 · v Lecce (H)2-0
- Apr 9 · v Aston Villa (H)1-3
- Apr 5 · at Cremonese (A)2-1
Roma
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Apr 18 · v Atalanta (H)1-1
- Apr 10 · v Pisa (H)3-0
- Apr 5 · at Inter (A)2-5
- Mar 22 · v Lecce (H)1-0
- Mar 19 · v Bologna (H)3-4
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.