Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Dec 28 · 17:00 · Bologna vs Sassuolo
Likeliest: Bologna win · 48%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bologna48%51%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%27%0
OursMarket
Sassuolo26%22%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 47% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 78% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 70% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Dec 14 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- Dec 11 · at Celta de Vigo (A)2-1
- Dec 7 · at Lazio (A)1-1
- Dec 4 · v Parma (H)2-1
- Dec 1 · v Cremonese (H)1-3
Sassuolo
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Dec 21 · v Torino (H)0-1
- Dec 14 · at Milan (A)2-2
- Dec 6 · v Fiorentina (H)3-1
- Nov 28 · at Como (A)0-2
- Nov 24 · v Pisa (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.