Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Sep 6 · 16:00 · Bologna vs Sassuolo
Likeliest: Bologna win · 42%
A 33% away win. The market says 25%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bologna42%48%−6
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Sassuolo33%25%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 47% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 75% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 52% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 66% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Aug 31 · at Atalanta (A)0-1
- Aug 24 · v Lazio (H)0-1
- May 23 · v Inter (H)3-3
- May 17 · at Atalanta (A)1-0
- May 11 · at Napoli (A)3-2
Sassuolo
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 2 · v Frosinone (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Torino (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at Atalanta (A)1-2
- Aug 17 · v Cesena (H)3-0
- May 24 · at Parma (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.