Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Sep 19 · 13:00 · Bologna vs Torino
Likeliest: Bologna win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bologna49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%0
OursMarket
Torino24%24%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 13 · at Napoli (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Sassuolo (H)2-2
- Aug 31 · at Atalanta (A)0-1
- Aug 24 · v Lazio (H)0-1
- May 23 · v Inter (H)3-3
Torino
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 14 · v Roma (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · at Fiorentina (A)2-1
- Sep 1 · v Monza (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Sassuolo (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v AC Milan (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.