Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Feb 23 · 19:45 · Bologna vs Udinese
Likeliest: Bologna win · 43%
A 34% away win. The market says 22%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bologna43%51%−8
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−4
OursMarket
Udinese34%22%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 45% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 48% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 78% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 49% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 70% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bologna
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Feb 19 · at Brann (A)1-0
- Feb 15 · at Torino (A)2-1
- Feb 11 · v Lazio (H)1-1
- Feb 8 · v Parma (H)0-1
- Feb 3 · v AC Milan (H)0-3
Udinese
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Feb 15 · v Sassuolo (H)1-2
- Feb 8 · at Lecce (A)1-2
- Feb 2 · v Roma (H)1-0
- Jan 26 · at Hellas Verona (A)3-1
- Jan 17 · v Inter (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Bologna | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.