League One (England) · Sat, May 9 · 19:00 · Bolton Wanderers vs Bradford City
Likeliest: Bolton Wanderers win · 43%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bolton Wanderers43%51%−9
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−1
OursMarket
Bradford City32%22%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 49% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 78% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 49% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 70% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bolton Wanderers
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- May 2 · v Luton Town (H)2-3
- Apr 25 · at Bradford City (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · v Huddersfield Town (H)3-3
- Apr 14 · v Stevenage (H)5-1
- Apr 11 · at Cardiff City (A)0-2
Bradford City
LossDrawDrawDrawWin
- May 2 · at Exeter City (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)1-1
- Apr 21 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)1-1
- Apr 18 · at Barnsley (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · v Stevenage (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Bolton Wanderers | Bradford City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.