Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 11:30 · Bolton Wanderers vs Cardiff City
Likeliest: Bolton Wanderers win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bolton Wanderers37%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Cardiff City36%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bolton Wanderers
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 8 · v West Ham United (H)2-3
- Sep 5 · at Millwall (A)0-4
- Sep 1 · at Sheffield United (A)2-3
- Aug 29 · v Lincoln City (H)0-1
- Aug 22 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)0-0
Cardiff City
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 8 · v Stoke City (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Portsmouth (A)0-2
- Sep 2 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Sheffield United (H)2-2
- Aug 25 · v Norwich City (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Bolton Wanderers | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.