Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 29 · 14:00 · Bolton Wanderers vs Lincoln City
Likeliest: Bolton Wanderers win · 38%
A 38% away win. The market says 33%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bolton Wanderers38%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Lincoln City38%33%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 47% | +23 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 67% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 54% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bolton Wanderers
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Aug 22 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)0-0
- Aug 15 · v Preston North End (H)2-1
- Aug 8 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)0-1
- May 24 · v Stockport County (H)4-1
- May 14 · at Bradford City (A)1-0
Lincoln City
WinWinLossLossWin
- Aug 25 · at Blackpool (A)4-1
- Aug 22 · v Portsmouth (H)1-3
- Aug 15 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · at Derby County (A)2-1
- May 2 · at Port Vale (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Bolton Wanderers | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.