League One (England) · Sat, May 2 · 14:00 · Bolton Wanderers vs Luton Town
Likeliest: Bolton Wanderers win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 37%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bolton Wanderers45%37%+8
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Luton Town31%38%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 62% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 64% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 62% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 63% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 49% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bolton Wanderers
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Apr 25 · at Bradford City (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · v Huddersfield Town (H)3-3
- Apr 14 · v Stevenage (H)5-1
- Apr 11 · at Cardiff City (A)0-2
- Apr 6 · v Stockport County (H)2-2
Luton Town
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Apr 25 · v Barnsley (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Rotherham United (A)2-0
- Apr 18 · at Mansfield Town (A)2-2
- Apr 15 · v Northampton Town (H)2-1
- Apr 6 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Bolton Wanderers | Luton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.