Championship (England) · Fri, Oct 23 · 19:00 · Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 61%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 61% for the away win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bolton Wanderers16%20%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%22%0
OursMarket
Middlesbrough61%58%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 42% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 80% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 21% | 26% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bolton Wanderers
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at Southampton (A)0-0
- Oct 13 · at Wolverhampton (A)3-1
- Oct 10 · v Stoke City (H)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Norwich City (A)4-3
- Sep 12 · v Cardiff City (H)1-0
Middlesbrough
DrawDrawDrawWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v Cardiff City (H)2-2
- Oct 13 · at Stoke City (A)3-2
- Oct 10 · v Wolverhampton (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Birmingham City (A)2-2
- Sep 15 · v Millwall (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Bolton Wanderers | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.