Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 15 · 11:30 · Bolton Wanderers vs Preston North End
Likeliest: Bolton Wanderers win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 43%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bolton Wanderers52%43%+9
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Preston North End23%29%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 47% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 71% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 57% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 60% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bolton Wanderers
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 8 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)0-1
- May 24 · v Stockport County (H)4-1
- May 14 · at Bradford City (A)1-0
- May 9 · v Bradford City (H)1-0
- May 2 · v Luton Town (H)2-3
Preston North End
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Aug 8 · v Huddersfield Town (H)1-1
- May 2 · v Southampton (H)1-3
- Apr 25 · at Sheffield United (A)3-2
- Apr 22 · at Birmingham City (A)1-2
- Apr 18 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Bolton Wanderers | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.