League One (England) · Sun, May 24 · 12:00 · Bolton Wanderers vs Stockport County
Likeliest: Stockport County win · 39%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bolton Wanderers36%36%0
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−3
OursMarket
Stockport County39%35%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 48% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 65% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 51% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bolton Wanderers
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- May 14 · at Bradford City (A)1-0
- May 9 · v Bradford City (H)1-0
- May 2 · v Luton Town (H)2-3
- Apr 25 · at Bradford City (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · v Huddersfield Town (H)3-3
Stockport County
WinLossWinWinWin
- May 13 · v Stevenage (H)2-0
- May 9 · at Stevenage (A)1-0
- May 2 · at Barnsley (A)3-1
- Apr 28 · v Port Vale (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · v Peterborough United (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Bolton Wanderers | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.