Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City
Likeliest: Stoke City win · 38%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bolton Wanderers33%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Stoke City38%38%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bolton Wanderers
LossLossLossWinWin
- Sep 20 · at Norwich City (A)4-3
- Sep 12 · v Cardiff City (H)1-0
- Sep 8 · v West Ham United (H)2-3
- Sep 5 · at Millwall (A)0-4
- Sep 1 · at Sheffield United (A)2-3
Stoke City
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 19 · v Sheffield United (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Watford (A)2-1
- Sep 8 · at Cardiff City (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Charlton Athletic (H)4-0
- Sep 1 · v Norwich City (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Bolton Wanderers | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.