Championship (England) · Tue, Sep 8 · 19:00 · Bolton Wanderers vs West Ham United
Likeliest: Bolton Wanderers win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 21%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bolton Wanderers47%21%+26
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+3
OursMarket
West Ham United27%56%−29
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 44% | +29 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 79% | −26 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 27% | +36 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bolton Wanderers
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 5 · at Millwall (A)0-4
- Sep 1 · at Sheffield United (A)2-3
- Aug 29 · v Lincoln City (H)0-1
- Aug 22 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)0-0
- Aug 15 · v Preston North End (H)2-1
West Ham United
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 5 · v Derby County (H)3-0
- Sep 1 · v Wolverhampton (H)4-2
- Aug 29 · at Watford (A)1-1
- Aug 25 · at Southampton (A)4-1
- Aug 22 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Bolton Wanderers | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.