1. Lig (Turkey) · Sat, Oct 10 · 10:30 · Boluspor vs Antalyaspor
Likeliest: Antalyaspor win · 61%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boluspor16%19%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Antalyaspor61%58%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 50% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 81% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 21% | 25% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boluspor
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at Sarıyer (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Pendikspor (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Bandırmaspor (A)0-6
- Sep 1 · v Keçiörengücü (H)0-2
- Aug 28 · at Muğlaspor (A)0-2
Antalyaspor
LossWinLossWinWin
- Sep 20 · v Van Spor Futbol Kulübü (H)3-0
- Sep 12 · at Ümraniyespor (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Sivasspor (H)1-2
- Sep 1 · at Bandırmaspor (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · v Sarıyer (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Boluspor | Antalyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.