1. Lig (Turkey) · Fri, Oct 23 · 17:00 · Boluspor vs Van Spor Futbol Kulübü
Likeliest: Van Spor Futbol Kulübü win · 57%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 57% for the away win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boluspor18%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Van Spor Futbol Kulübü57%53%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 43% | 47% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 29% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boluspor
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · at Iğdır FK (A)0-1
- Oct 14 · at Ümraniyespor (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v Antalyaspor (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Sarıyer (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Pendikspor (H)1-1
Van Spor Futbol Kulübü
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 18 · v Ümraniyespor (H)0-2
- Oct 13 · at Pendikspor (A)2-1
- Oct 9 · v Bandırmaspor (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at Antalyaspor (A)0-3
- Sep 12 · v Keçiörengücü (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Boluspor | Van Spor Futbol Kulübü |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-8 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.