National League (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Boreham Wood vs AFC Fylde
Likeliest: Boreham Wood win · 73%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 73% for the home win. The market says 69%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boreham Wood73%69%+4
OursMarket
Draw16%18%−2
OursMarket
AFC Fylde11%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 27% | 31% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 84% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boreham Wood
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Woking (H)3-2
- Oct 9 · at Sutton United (A)2-0
- Oct 3 · v Altrincham (H)3-1
- Sep 29 · v Kidderminster Harriers (H)3-1
- Sep 26 · at Solihull Moors (A)3-0
AFC Fylde
WinLossLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Atherton Collieries AFC (H)5-0
- Oct 10 · v Scunthorpe United (H)2-0
- Oct 3 · at Southend United (A)1-3
- Sep 29 · v Carlisle United (H)0-2
- Sep 26 · at Boston United (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Boreham Wood | AFC Fylde |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-1-0 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.