National League (England) · Sat, Oct 3 · 14:00 · Boreham Wood vs Altrincham
Likeliest: Boreham Wood win · 68%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 68% for the home win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boreham Wood68%65%+2
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
Altrincham15%16%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 35% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boreham Wood
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Sep 29 · v Kidderminster Harriers (H)3-1
- Sep 26 · at Solihull Moors (A)3-0
- Sep 19 · v Harrogate Town (H)4-1
- Sep 16 · at Scunthorpe United (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Eastleigh (A)1-1
Altrincham
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 29 · at Gateshead (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · v Hornchurch (H)3-0
- Sep 19 · at AFC Fylde (A)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Hartlepool United (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Woking (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Boreham Wood | Altrincham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-1-0 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.