FA Cup (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Boreham Wood vs Woking
Likeliest: Boreham Wood win · 68%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 66% for both teams to score. The market says 59%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boreham Wood68%65%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
Woking13%14%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 59% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 86% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 35% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boreham Wood
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 9 · at Sutton United (A)2-0
- Oct 3 · v Altrincham (H)3-1
- Sep 29 · v Kidderminster Harriers (H)3-1
- Sep 26 · at Solihull Moors (A)3-0
- Sep 19 · v Harrogate Town (H)4-1
Woking
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v Harrogate Town (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Eastleigh (A)3-1
- Sep 29 · v Solihull Moors (H)2-4
- Sep 26 · at Carlisle United (A)5-2
- Sep 19 · v Kidderminster Harriers (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Boreham Wood | Woking |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-1-0 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.