DFB Pokal (Germany) · Tue, Dec 2 · 20:00 · Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 51%
We make it 67% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 61%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Dortmund51%52%0
OursMarket
Draw21%24%−3
OursMarket
Bayer 04 Leverkusen28%25%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 61% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 75% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 68% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Dortmund
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Nov 29 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)2-1
- Nov 25 · v Villarreal (H)4-0
- Nov 22 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)3-3
- Nov 8 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-1
- Nov 5 · at Manchester City (A)1-4
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Nov 29 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-2
- Nov 25 · at Manchester City (A)2-0
- Nov 22 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)3-1
- Nov 8 · v Heidenheim (H)6-0
- Nov 5 · at Benfica (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Borussia Dortmund | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.