Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 11 · 13:30 · Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 49%
We make it 68% for both teams to score. The market says 63%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Dortmund49%48%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−2
OursMarket
Bayer 04 Leverkusen29%28%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 62% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 63% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Dortmund
LossWinWinWinWin
- Apr 4 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)2-0
- Mar 21 · v Hamburger SV (H)3-2
- Mar 14 · v FC Augsburg (H)2-0
- Mar 7 · at FC Köln (A)2-1
- Feb 28 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
DrawDrawLossDrawWin
- Apr 4 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)6-3
- Mar 21 · at Heidenheim (A)3-3
- Mar 17 · at Arsenal (A)0-2
- Mar 14 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-1
- Mar 11 · v Arsenal (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Borussia Dortmund | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Dortmund form·Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·Head-to-head record