Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Dec 19 · 19:30 · Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 54%
A 25% away win. The market says 16%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Dortmund54%64%−10
OursMarket
Draw21%20%+1
OursMarket
Borussia Mönchengladbach25%16%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 84% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 36% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 80% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Dortmund
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Dec 14 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-1
- Dec 10 · v Bodø / Glimt (H)2-2
- Dec 7 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-0
- Dec 2 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-1
- Nov 29 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)2-1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Dec 13 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-3
- Dec 5 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-0
- Dec 2 · v St. Pauli (H)1-2
- Nov 28 · v RB Leipzig (H)0-0
- Nov 22 · at Heidenheim (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Borussia Dortmund | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Dortmund form·Borussia Mönchengladbach form·Head-to-head record