Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, May 8 · 18:30 · Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 61%
We make it 78% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 69%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Dortmund61%59%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
Eintracht Frankfurt20%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 69% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 69% | 65% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 75% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Dortmund
WinLossLossWinLoss
- May 3 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-1
- Apr 26 · v SC Freiburg (H)4-0
- Apr 18 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-2
- Apr 11 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-1
- Apr 4 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)2-0
Eintracht Frankfurt
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- May 2 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · at FC Augsburg (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-3
- Apr 11 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)2-1
- Apr 5 · v FC Köln (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Borussia Dortmund | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Dortmund form·Eintracht Frankfurt form·Head-to-head record